Petrol engines will increasingly give way to electric power over the next genration.
Petrol engines will increasingly give way to electric power over the next genration.
The race is on to build the first hybrid car locally.The types of cars we drive will change dramatically over the next five to 10 years but, meanwhile, we will see more hybrid vehicles as we move to what the industry calls "the gradual electrification of the motor car".
In other words, the petrol engines will get smaller and electric engines will get bigger until, eventually, we have the electric-only car. That's about 10 years away. A lot is going to happen between now and then.
In the coming years there will be countless calls for governments to reduce fuel excise and other taxes on fuel. There will be road blockades by truck operators here and overseas. But these will not sway the inevitable.
Some experts reckon unleaded petrol will be $2 a litre by the end of this year and $3 by the end of next year. Freaking out? Petrol is still cheaper here than it is in Europe and Britain.
The admission earlier this year by the world's biggest car maker, General Motors, that oil was indeed running out was the clearest sign yet of the change in the makers' attitudes. The company that killed the electric car is now going full speed ahead on electric vehicle development. It has subsequently announced the closure of four pick-up truck factories in the US and is considering selling off the Hummer brand.
Car makers hate being hostage to unstable oil prices as this plays havoc with their business plans. Cars take five years to develop from a clean sheet of paper. So manufacturers are making decisions on what types of cars we want to drive at least five years before they're in showrooms. As we've seen, the world can change a lot in that time, as it has done in the past two years, let alone the past five.
Sure, we may see brief reprieves in oil prices when the oil-producing nations want to boost their cash reserves but, in the end, it's a finite resource that the world is using more of at a time when we are nearing the end of easily accessible, good quality crude.
High-performance cars and other gas guzzlers won't die but they will become increasingly expensive as their demand diminishes over time.
There will be no single solution to propelling our cars but several. To date this has been a problem as the world's leading car makers have gone off in different directions and tried to cover as many bases as possible.
Hydrogen was tipped as an ideal solution (the only thing leaving the tailpipe is water clean enough to drink) and it is still in the picture - but establishing effective distribution networks is a constant hurdle. It's a chicken-and-egg dilemma. What comes first: hydrogen refuelling stations or hydrogen cars?
Last Update on : June 16, 2008
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